US oil demand growth declines at fastest rate since 1980; ANALYSIS



New York (Platts)--27Feb2009

US oil demand growth in 2008 declined at its fastest rate since 1980,
dropping 1.208 million b/d to 19.472 million b/d, according to data released
Friday by the US Energy Information Administration, and reflecting the largest
downturn in the broader economy in 27 years.

Total US oil demand was revised down a minimal 15,000 b/d from weekly
preliminary data.

In 1980, US oil demand growth tumbled 1.457 million b/d to 17.056 million
b/d as the American economy reeled from the second oil supply shock in just
seven years and inflation soared to double-digit levels courtesy scorching
commodity prices.

Gasoline demand in 2008 fell 3.47% year-over-year, or down 322,000 b/d to
8.964 million b/d. Middle distillate demand was down 6.15%, or 258,000 b/d
lower at 3.938 million b/d. Demand for jet kerosene declined 6.41%, a decrease
of 104,000 b/d to 1.518 million b/d. Residual fuel oil demand fell 14.25%, a
decline of 103,000 b/d to 723,000 b/d.

For the month of December, total US oil demand growth at 19.199 million
b/d was down 1.52 million b/d year-over-year, a decline of 7.34%. The December
data represented a downward revision of 287,000 b/d from weekly preliminary
figures.

Gasoline demand in December averaged 8.921 million b/d, a downward
revision of 112,000 b/d from preliminary data. Demand for middle distillates
at 3.784 million b/d was a whopping 349,000 b/d downward revision. Jet
kerosene demand at 1.394 million b/d was revised down by just 38,000 b/d.
Residual fuel oil demand at 628,000 b/d was revised down 106,000 b/d.

While total US demand growth was down 1.52 million b/d in December 2008
compared to December 2007, demand readings had actually improved markedly from
September. September implied demand at 17.796 million b/d was 3.229 million
b/d below September 2007.

--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com