Tokyo (Platts)--26May2009

Benchmark light sweet crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange
could fall to around $40-50/barrel toward summer as some OPEC producers may
increase output, encouraged by current prices of around $60/b, Japan Energy's
general manager of crude and products buying Tadashi Yamazaki said Tuesday.

In a briefing in Tokyo hosted by the Petroleum Association of Japan,
Yamazaki said OPEC's expected decision to leave crude output targets unchanged
at its next meeting in Vienna Thursday would have a limited impact on crude
oil prices.

However, crude prices may retreat from current levels of around $60/b to
$40-50/b in summer amid weaker demand for oil globally, Yamazaki said. Crude
prices are then seen recovering back to $60/b by the end of the year, he said.

He added that the recent rise in crude oil prices was mainly driven by
price rises in stock markets as a result of growing optimism in the market.

"Amid high oil products stocks, it was too early to reach the crude oil
prices of around $60/b," Yamazaki said. "Prices could fall to around $40-50/b
towards summer because at least a few OPEC producers may increase their
output, which will result in stock levels increasing further," he said.
--Takeo Kumagai, takeo_kumagai@platts.com