Crude supported by soft dollar, higher equities in thin trade



London (Platts)--22May2009

Global crude futures gained fresh momentum Friday, buoyed by the extended
slide of the US dollar to a fresh low and modest gains on European equities
markets, sources said.

The ICE Brent front month contract reached a fresh intra-day high at
$60.75/barrel in an upward trending market, which exceeded Wednesday's
intra-day high by 3 cents and was the highest trade level since November 10.

By 1018 GMT, the contract traded 58 cents higher on the day at $60.51/b,
while light, sweet NYMEX crude for July delivery stood 48 cents firmer at
$61.53/b.

The ICE dollar index was 0.2 points off, having fallen to as low as 80.15
points earlier in the day, a level last seen in December 29.

"The dollar weakened, [European] stock markets are more stable," a broker
said.

Another source pointed to ongoing tensions in Nigeria, where the
parliament endorsed a military campaign to out militants in the Niger Delta,
as a supportive factor.

"The strong close last night [after a slide in the afternoon] makes
everyone pretty much technically bullish," a crude trader said.

"We can't see many people selling WTI here unless the market gets below
$60.8/b. [NYMEX] RBOB [futures] being back above $1.78/b also helps," he said.
"And when does oil ever drop before a long weekend?"

Both the US and the UK celebrate holidays on Monday.

NYMEX RBOB futures added 0.9 cents to $1.81/gal, having dipped to
$1.74/gal Thursday.

The firmness came even though tanker tracker agency Oil Movements
predicted crude exports from OPEC countries, excluding those from Angola and
Ecuador, would rise by 200,000 b/d from the previous four-week period to 22.44
million b/d in the four weeks ending June 6.

MF Global analyst Edward Meir said there was the possibility that prices
could drop to the mid-$50/b range if OPEC decided at its upcoming meeting on
May 28 to leave its crude output target unchanged, "since we do not see the
markets being as forgiving of the cartel as they were last time around."

"In our view, the cartel has lost a bit of credibility with the markets
since its last meeting in that its cutbacks have not trimmed inventory
levels," he said. "Moreover, there are recent signs that compliance is
starting to flag as exports push higher."

In addition, a trader pointed to concerns that the weakness of the
greenback could also prompt a downgrade to the sovereign rating of the USA
after ratings agency Standard & Poor's revised the United Kingdom's outlook to
negative from stable.

"It is very difficult to be long on oil fundamentals, which are looking
bearish," a trader said. "We are currently driven by the prospect of an
economic recovery."

ICE gasoil and NYMEX heating oil front-month futures followed the key
crude markers higher, trading up $8.5 and 0.1 cents at $485.25/mt and
$1.53/gal, respectively.