London (Platts)--5May2009

Global crude futures traded slightly lower Tuesday following a Monday
rally that saw both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI breach the $54/barrel mark.

"We saw some strength in the crude market yesterday coming from the
housing statistics and equities markets," a London-based oil broker said.

"After a shaky start, it seems as though we're hanging on to the gains,"
he added.

At 10:02 GMT, front month ICE Brent traded at $54.40/b, an 18 cent fall
from the overnight settle. Earlier trading saw the ICE Brent contract trade at
$54.75/barrel, the highest level since 28 November 2008. NYMEX light sweet
crude meanwhile, failed to record new highs, trading at an intra-session high
of $54.60/barrel. At 10:02GMT, the front month NYMEX WTI contract traded at
$54.34/barrel, a 13 cent fall.

"The [American Petroleum Institute] statistics, released tonight, will
play an important role in whether the recent momentum will be sustained," the
London-based broker said.

"I expect a build in crude stocks, a 0.5% increase in run rates, a
seasonal build in gasoline and stocks and a draw in distillates. However, some
are suggesting a build in distillates."

Analysts polled by Platts forecast a 2.2 million barrel build in crude
stocks, a 750,000 build in gasoline stocks, a 690,000 barrel build in
distillate stocks with refinery utilization run rates up by 0.5% to 83.2%.

The broker cited the non-farm payrolls report later this week as
something that could roil the crude markets further.

"A poor set of data coming from the non-farm payrolls report may put a
lid on oil prices which could see us back to $50/b," the broker added.

However, some analysts are predicting that the data may have only a
modest impact on the crude market.

"Markets do not seem to be unnerved at all by the results of the US
stress tests due out Thursday, or the non-farm payroll data that comes out the
next day," MF Global's Edward Meir said.

"Both of these variables seem to be discounted as nonevents at this
stage, but we suspect they are still capable of providing the markets with
something of a reality check. More importantly, the global economies still
have much work to do before we return to a path of sustainable growth."

According to Olivier Jakob, Monday's rally has placed additional pressure
on the technical resistance levels.

"Technically, we are entering into an area of pivotal importance that
needs to be traded within a global framework rather than in the isolation of a
single asset class. WTI is basically back to the highs of March [26)],"
energy analyst Olivier Jakob said in a Petromatrix report.

"There are however a few differences with March 26. First, the S&P 500
is now 9% higher and is sitting just on the unchanged mark for the year.
Action on equities will be crucial today as they are much more at a turning
point than on March 26h and it is them that will decide if WTI breaks or
busts at $55/b," he added.

According to MF Global, technical resistance levels for the June ICE
Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts are $55.50/b and $55.00/b respectively.

At 10:01 GMT global equity bourses continued to thrive, with the FTSE 100
recording a 3.04% gain relative to Friday's settle, catching up with Monday's
global equity rally, since UK markets were closed for a public holiday.

In the currency markets, meanwhile, the ICE dollar index traded at
83.913, a 0.205 point rise.
--George Johnson, george_johnson@platts.com