If They Can Do It, Then Why Can't We?
5.6.09 |
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Fred
Kesinger, Senior Executive, Everest Consulting Partners |
Most U.S. energy practitioners readily agree that a successful nationwide
energy program for the next few decades consists of a combination of
conservation, fossil fuels, clean coal, and multiple forms of renewable
energy. While many experts are deeply compassionate in this debate, there
are some lessons to be learned from other parts of the world. Take for
example Brazil's 30-year ethanol success story.
After nearly three decades, Brazil has succeeded in developing a
cost-effective alternative to gasoline. Currently Brazil is the second
largest producer of ethanol in the world (second only to the U.S.). And
according to the World Bank, estimated production cost is approximately
$1.00/gal compared to $1.50 for the rest of the world.
Ethanol accounts for over 40 percent of the total motor fuel consumed in
Brazil (compared to three percent in the U.S.). Brazil has approximately 23
million autos compared to more than 200 million in the U.S. Brazil says its
ethanol exports will likely double from $600 million in 2005 to $1.3 billion
in 2010. And since ethanol releases less carbon dioxide than fossil fuels,
this will help Brazil and other countries meet their obligation under the
Kyoto Protocol.
In 1970, they found themselves in a precarious position: the price of sugar
cane was going down and the price of oil going up. They import the bulk of
their oil (currently 16th on the world's oil producers). Brazilians realized
they had to take drastic measures to provide stability, economic growth and
a compelling standard of living.
Let's drill down and take a closer look at why (and how) Brazil embarked on
such a strategy and what factors contributed to their overall success.
Commonly accepted factors in Brazil's success in ethanol are:
* Sugar cane versus corn -- sugar cane produces more ethanol pound-for-pound
than corn.
* Tropical climate -- Brazil grows more sugar cane per acre than Iowa grows
corn. Brazil can grow sugar cane year-round while corn production in the
Midwest is hampered by cold winter weather. Planting sugar cane in an
equatorial habitat is a definite advantage in the competition to raise
economical fuel. With an annual rainfall of 40 to 60 inches and the average
annual temperature of 65 to 70 degrees F (depending on region), Brazil has
ideal growing conditions for sugar cane.
* Location of processing plants -- one of the first things Brazil did was to
build their processing plants very close to the sugar cane field thereby
reducing transportation cost.
* Brazil has the forethought to develop two tools: one is the manufacturing
of automobiles that can run on gasoline or ethanol (seven out of every 10
new cars is flex fuel); and two, fueling stations that can pump either
ethanol or gasoline.
* Government vision and leadership as the Brazilian government created a
long-term vision for energy independence and provided the leadership to
effect the desired outcome.
* The Brazilian government implemented a broad marketing campaign to
persuade automobile manufacturers, sugar cane producers, investors and the
Brazilian people to understand and support the national campaign. The
overwhelming buy-in from the participants exceeded expectations. The
campaign was slow to start but picked up support and speed as it
demonstrated their ability to exceed their goals.
One of the other breakthrough decisions in Brazil was the decision to power
their sugar refineries with bagasse, the fibrous material left over after
the raw sugar cane is pressed. By burning sugar cane bagasse to power their
refining machinery, they became self sufficient energy-wise but also created
a byproduct that can lower the production cost of the ethanol (in this case
they used bagasse to power their electric generators) The sugar cane
processors were able to sell the excess electricity back to the national
grid. Experts estimated that for every 600 megawatts created from burning
bagasse, they sold back another 100 megawatts to the national grid.
All of this progress didn't just happen -- it evolved. In the mid-seventies
under the oil embargo, OPEC threatened to withhold crude oil from the market
to drive up the prices. This also occurred simultaneously with a sharp fall
of sugar prices on the worldwide market. Brazil's leaders recognized they
must maintain control of their own future, and began implementing a
wide-scale plan to move away from fossil fuels. In 1975, the National
Alcohol Program was implemented to support the ethanol initiative. The first
step was to increase the number of distilleries by offering low interest
loans for construction.
The next step in transforming Brazil's foreign oil dependency was to start
the mass production of flex cars -- cars that could run on ethanol and/or
gasoline. Volkswagen, GM, and Toyota were major first movers. Taxi drivers
and fleet managers were incented to convert. Government vehicles were
converted. As a result of this very proactive national policy, by 1988, a
stunning 90 percent of new car sales in Brazil were ethanol-powered.
It must be said that ethanol production is not without its disadvantages.
The choice of feedstock, whether corn, sugar cane or other, is a complicated
issue. Land utilization is a much-debated topic and government subsidies
always are a source of consternation for all energy sources. As many energy
experts have become painfully aware, all forms of energy are going to have
their pros and cons.
What must the U.S. do to reach similar success?
* Government leadership, direction and vision. President Obama and Energy
Secretary Steven Chu must articulate and communicate the details of a strong
go-forward strategy that defines the details of the administration's energy
policy. President Obama within his first six months in office should clearly
advocate a strong position in creating (finally) a comprehensive energy
policy for fossil fuels, clean coal, nuclear, and all forms of renewable
energy (solar, wind, biomass, geothermal). This well thought-out position
must be aimed at getting the man on Main Street to understand and buy into
the concept and actively support such a program. Any energy program must
have decisive action with readily agreeable milestones. Each U.S. taxpayer
needs to notify their respective political representatives about their
thoughts, ideas and opinions relative to the U.S. energy policy.
* Funding for the Obama energy policy should come from a combination of
state and federal funds as well as private investors. It may well be prudent
to encourage and accept investment from foreign companies. For example,
companies like Vestas, Gamesa, Iberdola and Alstom either already have U.S.
operations or are considering same. Even Wall Street must be convinced there
is an opportunity for strong financial gains.
* Technology. R & D colleges and universities, think tanks, etc., must be
encouraged and incented to initiate and continue the discovery of new
technology. Some of these efforts will be successful; some won't. Within the
next decade we should see next generation technology in wind, solar, coal,
biomass, etc. Some areas of advancement will progress faster than others.
* Communication. As noted in Brazil's success, a massive and comprehensive
communication plan must clearly communicate to leaders in the industry,
government, research, academia, taxpayers and investors on what the Energy
Policy is, what we are doing to improve our energy crises and how we measure
and report our success.
* Feedstock Diversity. The U.S. should promote a variety of feedstock
including corn, switch grass and sugar cane.
Ethanol may not be the sole solution for our energy crises, but surely the
U.S. can take advantage of lessons learned elsewhere in the world to forge a
new strategy for clean, renewable, affordable energy. Americans have always
responded when a crisis looms at the front door. Americans responded to the
challenges during World War II, putting a man on the moon, the Manhattan
Project, etc. And we will again. It's time to overcome the stranglehold of
fossil fuels (and the auto manufacturers) and start moving toward a cleaner,
cost-effective energy program.
Comment Alan Belcher
5.6.09 Not to nit-pick but you state, "One of the other breakthrough
decisions in Brazil was the decision to power their sugar refineries with
bagasse, the fibrous material left over after the raw sugar cane is
pressed." I fail to see how this can be considered to be a breakthrough. As
a youngster I visited one of the larger sugar mills in northern Argentina
and bagasse was the fuel of choice, as I am sure was the case in most other
sugar mills throughout the world.
A very true article and deserving of thought.
Len Gould
5.6.09 Agreed, Brazil's switch to ethanol is a good example of how to
run an energy switch program given the options available to Brazil at the
time and their climate, but for the US, or any country in a temperate
climate, farmed bio-mass based energy is NOT a solution. Not now, not ever.
Photosynthesis is simply too inefficient.
Fred Linn
5.13.09 ---------"If They Can Do It, Then Why Can't We?
"---------------
Because the USA has abondoned the values that built this country.
The USA has become a nation of whiners, complainers, and political pundit
addicts. The only motivation left seems to be self interest, windfall
profits, fruad, greed, arrogant conciet and persuit of an easy buck.
Americans have come to expect someone else to do their thnking for them,
instead of mastering the art of independent thinking and hard work that
their grandparents used. Americans used to roll up their sleeves and get
things done. No matter WHAT the obstacles were. Need a canal in Panama? We
built a canal in Panama. So what if the French already tried and failed. We
aren't French. Facist dictators need their butt kicked, we kicked their
butt! After Pearl Harbor, while his other officers were in jubilation,
Admiral Yamamoto said "I fear we have awakened the sleeping tiger." Admiral
Yamamoto was right.
So where are the Americans that could do things no one else could do.
Where are the Americans who could see a job that needed to be done, and went
out and did it. Where are the Americans that took risks, could think on
their feet, and again and again defied the odds, and did what everyone else
said couldn't be done?
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