Moscow (Platts)--14May2009

OPEC crude production averaged 28.21 million b/d in April, breaking a
seven-month falling trend as it increased by 270,000 b/d from 27.94 million
b/d in March, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

Output from the 11 OPEC members bound by the group's production
agreements rose to 25.79 million b/d last month, up from 25.57 million b/d in
March and 945,000 b/d above their collective target of 24.845 million b/d, the
IEA said in its latest monthly oil market report.

This led to compliance by the OPEC-11 with their agreement last year to
cut supply by a combined volume of 4.2 million b/d falling to 78% in April
from 83% in March.

Iran, OPEC's second-biggest producer, accounted for 410,000 b/d of the
overproduction last month, with Angola (170,000 b/d) and Venezuela (130,000
b/d) the next biggest quota-busters, the IEA report said.

Only Saudi Arabia, the group's biggest producer, pumped below its target
level in April, although fellow Gulf states Kuwait and the UAE both achieved
more than 90% compliance, the IEA said.

OPEC ministers are due to meet May 28 in Vienna to review crude
production levels.

The IEA said the falling compliance with agreed cuts was likely to fuel
discontent in the group among the countries sticking more closely to target
production levels.

In addition, the IEA said Angola, which exceeded its 1.52 million b/d
target by 173,000 b/d in April, was petitioning to have its quota suspended to
prevent it suffering more as it seeks to rebuild after a 30-year civil war.

"Uneven compliance by a few members and Angola's plea for an exemption
threaten to chip away at OPEC's otherwise strong resolve to rein in
oversupply," the IEA said in its report, suggesting that these issues "might
limit the group's ability to implement any further reductions in official
production targets at the Vienna meeting."

Saudi Arabia, which is maintaining output discipline even as it builds
its own capacity, may find the lack of compliance "particularly hard to bear,"
the IEA added, adding that "Saudi Arabia's discontent with overproducers may
grow in tandem with its swelling idle capacity."
--Richard Swann, richard_swann@platts.com