London (Platts)--22May2009

OPEC crude exports, excluding those from Angola and Ecuador, are expected
to average 22.44 million b/d in the four weeks ending June 6, up 200,000 b/d
from the previous four-week period, UK-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said
Friday.

Compared with the same period a year ago, Oil Movements' latest estimate
for the four weeks ending June 6 shows a decline in OPEC exports of 2.38
million b/d.

Since the start of this year OPEC has been gradually reducing production
and exports in line with its agreements last year to remove 4.2 million b/d of
supply from world markets in the face of plunging demand and prices.

But the predicted rise from the previous four-week period would mark a
notable increase in OPEC supply, and adds to recent estimates that the group's
oil supply has now stopped falling.

"Evidence is accumulating that OPEC sailings have changed direction, at
least for the near term," Oil Movements said in its weekly report.

The tanker tracker's prediction that the trend of falling OPEC output is
currently being reversed follows estimates by other organizations also
suggesting weakening compliance by OPEC with its pledged cuts.

Last week the International Energy Agency estimated that OPEC crude
production in April actually rose by 270,000 b/d to 28.21 million b/d,
breaking a seven-month falling trend.

And the US' Energy Information Administration estimated OPEC output at
28.48 million b/d in April, 60,000 b/d higher than the previous month, while a
Platts survey pegged the figure at 28.09 million b/d, up 110,000 b/d.

OPEC is due to meet May 28 in Vienna to review crude output policy.