| Solar Makes Sense Now
| 5.20.09 |
|
Charles Gay, President, Applied Materials, Inc. |
Solar photovoltaic electricity has historically suffered from a troika of
complaints that limited its deployment to niche markets: "Solar is too
expensive," "Solar is not reliable" and "Solar is not scalable enough to
solve major energy needs." The newest wave of technologies, equipment
makers, module manufacturers and installers are putting an end to those
misperceptions once and for all.
At the same time, our country's reliance on imported oil, the environmental
costs of fossil fuel energy generation and the predicted long-term increase
in energy prices create an urgent need for solutions. The International
Energy Agency estimates that global energy demand will increase by 45
percent between 2006 and 2030. As demand escalates with uncertain supply,
prices will in turn increase, placing a huge strain on our economy. Clearly,
the mandate to deliver new energy solutions has never been stronger, and
solar PV is ready to deliver competitive prices with high-value job creation
at the same time.
Cost is the key factor in energy generation. The photovoltaic-module
manufacturing industry has an outstanding record of continuously driving
down cost per watt as production levels increase. In fact, module prices
have historically decreased by nearly 20 percent for every cumulative
doubling of production. This means that when only 10 megawatts of modules
were produced in 1982, modules cost $18.73 a watt. By the time 1.5 gigawatts
of modules were being produced annually in 2003, the cost had fallen to
$3.53 a watt. This highly predictable pattern, typical of virtually all
manufactured goods, demonstrates that as the scale of module production
ramps, rapid improvements in process, throughput, and uptime deliver
continuous cost reduction. Thin-film photovoltaic technology has an even
greater chance of driving solar costs down to that of energy produced by
fossil fuels, a concept known as grid parity.
Thin-film technology dramatically reduces the amount of silicon needed to
produce a module, thereby reducing costs. Applying our company's 40 years of
experience in driving down the cost of integrated circuits, and more
recently flat-panel displays, we're also bringing advances in deposition
process, automation and factory efficiency to the thin-film production
environment. All of these efforts further help to drive down the price of
solar.
Importantly, solar has already achieved grid parity in several areas today.
For example, California's peak summer electricity rates hover above 40 cents
a kilowatt-hour, which is more expensive than unsubsidized solar power
generated today at about 30 cents a kilowatt-hour. In addition, solar can be
distributed across the grid to relieve pressure on critical substations or
transmission lines without the time or expense of wiring new transmission or
distribution facilities. A resource for energy generation, solar is
incredibly abundant. Every day, the sun provides 10,000 times more energy
than we need for the planet. What this means is that from a cost,
availability and rapid-deployment perspective, solar makes sense right now.
Questions about long-term reliability have also hampered solar photovoltaic
deployment, and in particular, thin-film modules. But thin-film modules are
neither new nor unproven. In the United States, the Sacramento Municipal
Utility District began deploying amorphous-silicon, thin-film modules since
1992 and now has more than 1.5 megawatts of the modules producing
electricity in its portfolio. According to SMUD, these solar arrays are
performing at or above projected power outputs. Europe has also embraced the
low-cost advantages of deploying utility-scale thin-film solar arrays, with
more than 10 megawatts of capacity deployed in the past five years. Almost
every reputable module manufacturer seeks International Electromechanical
Commission and Underwriters Laboratory certification for photovoltaic
components, meaning the components must pass an arduous set of tests
designed to accelerate the aging process to determine whether day-night
temperature cycling, humidity or other stress conditions will cause them to
fail.
Finally, solar has faced an obstacle of being too small a solution to truly
make a difference in addressing the world's energy needs. Not anymore. As
module factories increase in size, high-productivity tools and automation
and factory process management continue to advance stride-for-stride to
support growth. In addition to increasing the output of factories, scaling
up the size of a manufacturing facility provides tremendous opportunities
for materials cost reduction, utility cost savings, and improved
efficiencies in logistics planning -- all of which further help to reduce
the cost per watt.
Applied Materials is currently ramping 11 thin-film photovoltaic factories
for customers in six countries on two continents. Increased production
around the globe is helping to transform solar photovoltaics from a cottage
industry to a key long-term solution for alleviating the world's energy
crisis with an affordable, clean source of energy.
This article originally appeared in the
March/April 2009 issue. |