Crude futures lower as dollar index hits four-week high
 

 

London (Platts)--3Nov2009/656 am EST/1156 GMT

  

Global crude futures were lower in early European trading Tuesday as a resurgent dollar placed downward pressure on the oil complex.

"It's amazing how one day we're 'bulled up' and the next we're 'beared up,' much of which can be related back to the dollar," a crude trader said Tuesday.

At 11:13 GMT the December ICE Brent contract traded at $75.75/barrel, a $0.80 fall, while the December NYMEX WTI contract was $0.93 lower, trading at $77.20/b. In the currency markets, the ICE Dollar Index meanwhile traded at 76.777 points, the highest level since October 5.

"The technical charts shows Brent below the five-day moving average. If the Dow [Jones equity index] sells off later today coupled with a stronger dollar, I would expect crude benchmarks to trade lower," the trader said.

"The key macro developments of the week--namely, the Federal Reserve policy statement on Wednesday and the non-farm payroll numbers on Friday-- will be the prime market movers this week, and so we do not expect the markets to do much until later in the period," MF Global energy analyst Edward Meir said in a report. "However, we still believe that despite its fits and starts, the dollar is in the throes of a mini-correction that could see it strengthen somewhat further from here, and likely exert continued downward pressure on energy."

The market is also awaiting the American Petroleum Institute weekly oil stocks report later today.

"The market is anticipating builds," a crude broker said.

According to analysts polled by Platts, crude oil stocks are expected to post a 1.3 million barrel build. Gasoline stocks are expected to climb by 800,000 barrels, while distillates are expected to show a 1 million barrel draw. The US Energy Information Administration issues its more widely recognized report Wednesday.

--George Johnson, george_johnson@platts.com