Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1031 (N30E08) was a
Bxo-beta group with 2 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (17-18 November). Quiet
levels, with isolated unsettled periods, are expected on day three
(19 November).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 076
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 077/078/078
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 005/005-005/005-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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