IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1033 (N19E34) a Bxo-beta , has grown in area and
sunspot number. Region 1032 (N15E07) a Bxo-beta, has shown little
change. No flares have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
for the next two days (20-21 November) due to a recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream. Conditions should decline to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels for the third day (22 November).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 077
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 010/010-015/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/10
Minor storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/10
Minor storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales