Washington (Platts)--18Nov2009/959 am EST/1459 GMT

The Nuclear Energy Institute expects to see four to eight new nuclear units operating in the US in 2016, and 35 or more by 2030, depending on the success of initial projects, an industry official said Monday.

Douglas Walters, vice president for regulatory affairs at NEI, said in his presentation Monday at the American Nuclear Society's winter meeting in Washington that the number of new units operating by 2016 will "probably be closer to four" than to eight.

An additional 10 to 12 new units are expected by 2020, and possibly 35 or more new units by 2030, Walters said.

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is expected to take 42 to 50 months to complete its first few reviews of applications for combined construction permit-operating licenses for new power reactors, Walters said.

David Matthews, director of NRC's division of new reactor licensing, said in his Monday presentation at the meeting that the agency is actively reviewing 13 COL applications to build a total of 22 new units. Reviews of five other COLS to build a total of six units are currently suspended at the requests of the applicants, but one of those reviews--UniStar Nuclear's application to build a new unit at Constellation Energy's Nine Mile Point plant--is expected to resume in 2010, Matthews said.

NRC has been notified that an unnamed applicant expects to submit a COL application in the 2010-2011 timeframe, and another unnamed applicant will submit in 2011-2012, Matthews said. NRC has not been authorized by those potential applicants to name them publicly, he said.

Southern Nuclear Operating Company may submit a COL application for a greenfield site in 2012, Matthews said. NRC has also been notified that one further unnamed applicant may submit for a COL sometime in the "very uncertain future," he said.

NRC expects to receive applications for early site permits in 2010 from Exelon for its Victoria County, Texas, project and from Public Service Enterprise Group for its Salem-Hope Creek site, Matthews said. An ESP represents NRC staff's finding that a site is suitable for nuclear power reactor construction. The permit is valid for 10 to 20 years from the date of issuance and can be renewed for an additional 10 to 20 years.

Both Exelon and PSEG's applications will use the "plant parameter envelope" approach, Matthews said, meaning the ESP would not tied to a particular reactor design. Most if not all ESP applicants will likely use this approach to preserve flexibility, he said after his presentation.

Two unnamed applicants have notified NRC they expect to submit applications in 2012 and 2013, Matthews said. Additionally, the Southern Ohio Clean Energy Park Alliance has told NRC it expects to submit an ESP application for the Piketon, Ohio site of a former DOE uranium enrichment plant, he said. The alliance has told NRC that its ESP application could potentially be followed by a COL application, he said. --Steven Dolley, steven_dolley@platts.com