Stolen E-Mails Raise Questions On Climate ResearchA huge pile of e-mails were stolen from a British climate laboratory
and posted on the Internet last week. The correspondence shows that some
climate scientists are resorting to bare-knuckle tactics to defend the
orthodoxy of global warming. Journals are supposed to be impartial filters that let good ideas
rise to the top and bad ideas sink to the bottom. But the stolen e-mails
show that a group of scientists has decided that's not working well
enough. So they have resorted to strong tactics — including possible
boycotts — to keep any paper they think is dubious from reaching the
pages of a journal. When Science Becomes Politics In fact, one of the world's most celebrated climate scientists says the review system has gotten so distorted, it's even thwarting him. James Hansen at NASA's Goddard Institute argues that the consensus view of global warming actually understates the risks. In his new book, Storms of my Grandchildren, he writes that he wanted to publish a big paper critical of the consensus view, but he had "no realistic chance of publishing it in a regular scientific journal" because he assumed the reviewers would reject it to defend their centrist point of view. That said, many of the complaints about the journal review process come from people who think mainstream science is overstating climate hazards. For example, climatologist John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville accepts that global warming is happening, but he says there is a lot of uncertainty about its causes and impacts. He says he has trouble getting some of his results published. "I've done a pretty thorough study of snowfall of the Southern Sierra mountains of California, and the Southern Sierra find no downward trend in snowfall," he says. That's important because snowfall is forecast to decline because of global warming, and that would seriously affect California's water supply. Christy says he has tried three times to get his paper published. So far, it's been rejected, and he suspects it's because scientists are trying to stifle his message. "Everyone from the secretary of Energy [on down] who has talked about the snowfall in the Sierra going away will not find any comfort in the fact that the trends in snowfall are essentially zero for the last hundred years," he says. Committee Cites Other Reasons For Not Publishing But climatologist Philip Mote at Oregon State University says Christy's paper is not being suppressed for its conclusions. He is one of the scientists who reviewed the paper, and he says the science in the paper was fine. "To my knowledge, there's no suppression going on. It's just that it's not news," Mote says. Mote himself published a paper four years ago showing that snowfall in the Southern Sierra hasn't diminished. In fact, he says there are about 10 papers on the subject. They are not identical to Christy's, but they reach the same broad conclusion. "It's not controversial because it's already well known," Mote says. Still, it's easy to see why Christy suspects deeper motivations. The stolen e-mails contain sharp personal attacks against him. He says the politics inside climate science are making life harder for him — not just in publishing papers but in getting money to do research. Mote says dissent is important in science. He doesn't agree with everything Christy says, but says he should have a voice. "We need people like John Christy around really looking closely and saying, 'Wait, is that true?' and publishing papers pointing things out." Georgia Tech's Curry says the whole e-mail episode shows that climate science could use a healthy dose of sunshine. She suggests that U.S. journals do what some in Europe have started to do, which is make the peer-review process open and public rather than left to the quiet behind-the-scenes maneuvering that is evidenced in the stolen e-mails. Copyright 2009 NPR To subscribe or visit go to: http://www.npr.org |