New York (Platts)--3Nov2009/1200 am EST/500 GMT

Weekly oil data from the Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute should show a 1.3 million barrel build in US commercial crude stocks for the reporting week ended October 30, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.

API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 pm EST (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's report will be released at 10:30 am EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.

But crude import levels would have to jump back above 9.1 million b/d to yield a stock build given that analysts are projecting an increase of 0.4 percentage points in refinery utilization. A 0.4 percentage point increase in throughputs would leave refinery utilization at 82.2% based on last week's EIA data.

Gasoline stocks are expected to build 800,000 barrels. With two consecutive weeks of declining demand and a richer-priced NYMEX RBOB crack spread compared to the heating oil crack, refiners should keep gasoline yields high relative to those for distillates. The week ending October 30, the gasoline yield was 61.14%, a high level for this time of year, and the yield for middle distillates was 26.2%.

Stocks of middle distillates are projected to draw 1 million barrels. Demand could pick up as cooler temperatures along the Atlantic Coast cause a pull on heating oil stocks. An abnormally warm fall on the East Coast has caused a late start to winter fuel demand.

--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com