More refinery shutdowns needed for margins to improve

 

Sunoco's plans to indefinitely shut for economic reasons its 145,000 b/d Eagle Point refinery in Westville, New Jersey, near Philadelphia, did not come as a major surprise to most in the gasoline market.

But they add it would take many more similar shutdowns, not only on the US Atlantic Coast but also down on the US Gulf Coast, before such moves would generate any tangible effect on US refining margins.

Large swathes of the industry do admit that gasoline-centered refineries -- which make up the bulk of US plants -- are bearing the brunt of current weak margin situation.

Most of such refineries remain stuck swimming in negative margins that descended upon then several months ago. Traders say margins have improved a tad this week, but remain insufficient to cover refiners' production costs.

And while some have resorted to bringing forward turnarounds of gasoline making units, cutting runs or shut units for an extended period of time to allay the bleak situation, few have made moves quite as bold, even if not surprising, as Sunoco, say sources.

In fact some have played down the "boldness" of Sunoco's move, announced by the company a week ago, to nothing more than a run cut, considering the Eagle Point refinery is integrated with its larger Philadelphia refining system.

In any case, most traders say Sunoco's move removes only a drop from the bucket brimming with gasoline.

Never mind that gasoline stocks in the US remain well within the range of levels seen over the last five years.

In fact, stock levels have been on a downtrend for several years.

According to the Energy Information Administration, finished gasoline stocks for the week ending October 2 stood at 86.9 million barrels, down sharply from where we started at in January at 95.9 million barrels. At the start of 2004, stocks stood at 148.2 million barrels.

So why then are US refiners fussing about bringing down stock levels as a means of shoring up prices and therefore improving margins? Couldn't it be that the real problem is demand lost as the recession continues to take a exponential toll on US consumers.

But demand data -- the EIA's product supplied -- which is suppose to represent US demands, seems a bit of a quagmire, traders say.

Going by just that data, it would appear that demand is healthy for gasoline. According to the EIA, product supplied for finished motor gasoline stood at 9.3 million b/d, down 14,000 b/d from earlier this year. At the start of 2004, this stood at 8.69 million b/d.

Yet at the rack level, trade sources say, sales have been slow and lacking in luster distinctly from years before, jiving with how a recessionary environment would be.

Perhaps refiners are responding to where it counts most, their sales, and where and when numbers are down its time to cut back or wrap it up.