Bangkok (Platts)--6Oct2009/727 am EDT/1127 GMT

The global financial crisis cut energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by 3% in 2009 and nudged the world onto the right path to prevent catastrophic climate change, but urgent action is still needed to prevent a drift back to business as usual, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

In a section of its key World Energy Outlook report released to coincide with the latest round of international climate negotiations taking place in Bangkok, the IEA said a return to business as usual would mean energy-related CO2 emissions rising to 40 billion mt in 2030 from 29 billion mt in 2007, putting the world on course for atmospheric levels of CO2 to hit 1,000 ppm and a catastrophic temperature rise of 6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

But if negotiators moved swiftly to strike a tough new global climate deal in December in Copenhagen, then atmospheric levels of CO2 could be stabilized at 450 ppm--which scientists say equates to a much more manageable temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius, the IEA said.

"450 [ppm] is much more achievable [now, due to the recession] but we still need an energy and environment revolution," IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka told a briefing on the margins of the climate talks.

Scientists say that even at 2 degrees there will be serious consequences for the world with far more intense droughts and storms, changed rainfall patterns and damage to health. Above that, they say, catastrophe looms with mass species wipeout and millions of human deaths.

The talks are currently stymied, with no sign of an agreement on the levels of emission cuts the rich, developed world needs to make or how much major developing countries like India and China need to reduce their emission growth paths.

There is also no sign of agreement on the level of finance the industrialized world will make available to help the developing world curb emissions and adapt to the climate change that is already inevitable due to past emissions. The World Bank said last week it calculated that $75 billion-$100 billion (Eur51 billion-Eur68 billion) a year would be needed just for adaptation measures.

The IEA said that stabilizing atmospheric carbon at 450 ppm would mean peaking energy-related emissions at 30.9 billion mt in 2020 and reducing them to 26.4 billion by 2030.

It said world fossil fuel demand had to peak in 2020 and then decline, while low-carbon alternatives would have to rise sharply.

More than half of the savings in 2030 would come from energy efficiency measures, with a substantial chunk from renewables and further contributions from carbon capture and storage, nuclear power and biofuels.

But at the same time there would also have to be a revolution in car technology, with 60% of new car sales in 2030 having to be hybrid or electric-fueled.

All this would cost a great deal of money -- about $10.5 trillion in extra investments between 2010 and 2030, equivalent to 0.5% of gross domestic product in 2020, rising to 1.1% in 2030. But it would also bring great benefits, the IEA said.

Total fuel savings across industry, buildings and transport would be worth $8.6 trillion by 2030, while air pollution costs would be cut by $40 billion in 2020 and $100 billion in 2030.

The energy agency also said it expected OPEC revenues between 2008 and 2030 to be $23 trillion in the 450 ppm scenario, just $5 trillion below its business as usual scenario.

As a further stick to the climate negotiators, Tanaka warned that every year of delay in taking tough action on carbon emissions would add $500 billion to the costs of doing so.

The full IEA report will be published on November 10.

--Jeremy Lovell, jeremy_lovell@platts.com