Crude futures enter 'new pricing environment' at $65/b: broker
 

 

London (Platts)--28Sep2009/653 am EDT/1053 GMT

  

Global crude futures have "entered a new pricing environment," a crude broker said Monday, with $65/barrel cited as a stable level for global crude futures benchmarks.

"People will be looking back to the lows in July for technical support," the broker said.

The recent stock builds reported by the Energy Information Administration coupled with bleak demand data and a stronger US dollar were seen as bearish factors for the crude complex, the broker said, offsetting any geopolitical concerns following Iran's missile testing over the last two days.

At 1021 GMT, front month ICE Brent traded at $64.83/b, a $0.28 fall.

The NYMEX WTI benchmark was also susceptible to the downward pressure, trading $0.32 lower at $65.70/b.

The ICE dollar index meanwhile advanced to 76.925, a 0.113 rise.

"Whether this latest geopolitical bombshell [Iran's missile testing] will have what it takes to stem the severe price declines we have been seeing in energy in recent days remains to be seen," energy analyst Edward Meir said in an MF Global report. "It seems the markets are not that unnerved, and seem to be implying that the tensions will not be enough to generate any meaningful rally."

"This should allow energy's underlying negative fundamentals to assert themselves in the interim," Meir said.

Despite the recent bearish momentum, Societe Generale's Global Quarterly Commodities Review said that the pricing outlook for crude was "unchanged".

According to the report, front-month NYMEX WTI is forecast to average $72.50/b in the fourth quarter of 2009 and $75/b in December.

The 2010 NYMEX WTI average is valued at $82.50/b.

--George Johnson, george_johnson@platts.com