Crude oil, natural gas price volatility bleeds
into coal prices
Washington (Platts)--17Sep2009/531 am EDT/931 GMT
Volatile natural gas and crude oil markets are affecting the
forward years of NYMEX look-alike coals with prices in all quarters of
2011 spiking by more than $2 on Wednesday.
In the near term, the first quarter of 2010 appeared to be the
most heavily traded product, with prices swings of at least 75 cents.
Driven higher by a reported crude inventory draw, equity gains
and a weak US dollar, October crude settled $1.58 higher at
$72.51/barrel. The October NYMEX gas contract also settled higher after
a rally Wednesday morning.
In the look-alike coal market, Q1 2010 traded eight times for
five barges a month: three times at $49/short ton, three times at
$48.50/st, and once each at $48.75/st and $48.25. Wednesday's price of
this spec is at least 25 cents to $1 higher than Tuesday, when it traded
eight times for the same tonnage at prices ranging from $46.75 to $48.
The back half of look-alike 2010 coals traded twice at $56.25.
CY 2011 also traded three times at $66.25, up $2.25 from Tuesday's
traded price of $64 for five barges. CY 2012 look-alike coals traded for
five barges at $73, up $1 from Tuesday's price of $72/st for the same
tonnage.
Among 2011 quarters, Q2 2011 of look-alike coals traded twice
at $64.25 and at $64.75/st, up at least $2.25 from September 9, when it
traded last at $62/st. Q3 2011 traded at $68/st, up $3.25 from $64.75,
where it traded last on September 11. As for Q4 2011, it traded twice
for five barges at $69.75 and $70.25, up at least $2 from Monday, when
it traded last at $67.75 for five and 10 barges, respectively.
Among spreads, back-half 2010 over front-half 2010 traded at
$6.25 as did CY 2011 over CY 2010 at $12.60.
In the Powder River Basin market, Q1 2010 8,800-Btu/lb coal
traded at $8.70, 5 cents above Tuesday's Platts' assessed price, and
back-half 2010 (Q3 and Q4) traded at $9.30 for two trains a month. A PRB
financial swap of back-half 2010 occurred at $9.50/st for 10,000 st and
the same tonnage again swapped for $9.35/st.
Also traded Wednesday was one train/month of CY 2010 Norfolk
Southern coal at $55.75/st. --Amena Saiyid, amena_saiyid@platts.com
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