London (Platts)--10Sep2009/528 pm EDT/2128 GMT

The uranium market should be well supplied up to 2020 but new mines will need to be developed to satisfy demand thereafter, according to a report released Thursday in London by the World Nuclear Association.

World reactor requirements for uranium are expected to rise to 76,900 mt in 2015, 91,500 mt in 2020 and 106,100 mt in 2030 from the 64,500 mt estimated in 2008, the nuclear industry lobby group said.

Those are the "reference scenario" numbers in the WNA's biannual Global Nuclear Fuel Market Report--Supply and Demand 2009, which also included a lower and an upper estimate scenario.

The WNA's reference scenario sees uranium production growing to 70,000 mt in 2015 and 80,000 mt in 2020. The upper case scenario puts production at 75,000 mt in 2015 and 93,000 mt in 2020, while the lower case scenario sees production of only 59,000 mt in 2015 dropping to 56,000 mt in 2020.

The report said world nuclear capacity at the end of 2008 was 371 GW of electricity and would rise under the reference scenario to 415 GWe by 2015, 476 GWe by 2020 and 600 GWe by 2030.

In the upper scenario, the figures are 437 GWe by 2015, 558 GWe by 2020, and 818 GWe in 2030.

By contrast the lower scenario sees world nuclear capacity stagnating in the period to 2020 and then dropping rapidly as old reactors close and aren't replaced.

The nuclear industry is promoting itself as a key player in the fight against climate change which scientists say is exacerbated by burning fossil fuels for power and transport.

WNA said both the reference and upper scenarios in its new report reflect higher uranium requirements than its previous report in 2007.

"The main explanation for this is the improved outlook for nuclear generating capacity and, in particular, the impact that this has on first core fuel requirements," WNA said. First cores require more uranium than subsequent reloads. --David Stellfox; david_stellfox@platts.com