Every utterance by ministers arriving in the Austrian capital over the past couple of days suggests that OPEC will again rubber-stamp the deal agreed last December to remove 4.2 million b/d of crude supply from world oil markets.
There have been some interesting comments on the stocks situation. Last month's report from the International Energy Agency -- the September report will be published on Thursday -- estimated OECD industry stocks at 61.7 days of forward cover. That's eight days more than the five-year average and well beyond the 52-53 days that OPEC prefers.
But whereas such high levels of stock cover have previously tended to present a big headache for OPEC, the current thinking seems to be that the market has in fact become used to high inventories.
"Prices are improving even though stocks are high," says Algerian oil minister Chakib Khelil. "The industry is getting used to this level (of stocks)."
Meanwhile, the main output-related issue for OPEC at this meeting will be compliance with the agreed cuts. Oil prices have firmed considerably over the past few months, encouraging OPEC leakage. Platts estimates that compliance has dropped from a high of close to 82% in March to below 67% in August.
The OPEC conference is pencilled in for 9:30 pm Vienna time, so there won't be a formal announcement until well after markets have closed. In the meantime, we journalists covering the meeting will continue to listen for any remark that might suggest a new dynamic but will be very surprised indeed if we hear one.
