IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A single unsettled
period was observed at all latitudes between 14/0000-0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods at high latitudes, for the next three days (15-17
September). The increased activity is expected as a recurrent
coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 069
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 007/015-008/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales