IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1026 (S29E28)
produced a B1 x-ray flare at 24/0020Z. This region remains an
H-type spot group. Region 1027 (N24E05) continues to grow slightly
in area and spot count and remains unchanged in its magnetic beta
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day one (25 September). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions, are expected for
day two (26 September). This activity is expected due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected to return for day three (27 September).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 075
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 005/005-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/25
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/35/30
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales