IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1027 (N23W47)
indicated a slight increase in area and spot number and maintains a
bipolar magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated minor storm
period observed at middle latitudes between 28/0600 - 0900Z. An
extended period of southward IMF Bz (-5 to -6 nT) was observed
between 28/0400Z - 0800Z that contributed to the minor storm.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two (29-30 September). Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on day three (01 October) due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 073
Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 28 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales