IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Regions 1060
(N24E14) and 1061 (N13W39) remain stable and show slight decay. No
flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions, with periods of major storming at some high latitude
stations. This activity is a continuation of the CME-driven
conditions from 05 April. The ACE spacecraft currently indicates
the presence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Solar
wind speed is averaging 625 km/s with sustained periods of southward
IMF Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached very high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods for day one
(08 April) due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for day two (09 April). Predominately quiet
conditions are expected for day three (10 April).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 076
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 022/046
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 015/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 012/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/05
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales