IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 1060 (N25E00)
produced a B3 flare at 08/0325Z with an associated EIT wave and a
earth directed full halo CME. SOHO C2 imagery observed a second CME
at 08/1030Z located along a filament channel in the northeast
quadrant of the disk. This CME is not expected to become
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance of a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft show continued influence from
the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds have averaged
600 km/s with IMF Bz fluctuations ranging from -4/+4 nT. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
very high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (09 April). Days two
and three (10-11 April) are expected to be predominately quiet, as
the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 076
Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 08 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/01/01
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/01/01
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1654
Begin Time: 2010 Apr 05 0915 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 120119pfu

 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales