IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours. The visible disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (16-18 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated active to minor
storm periods from 14/21-15/03Z due to recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day one (16 April). Mostly quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for days two and three (17-18 April),
with possible isolated active periods at high latitudes on day three
(18 April). Increased activity levels are due to effects from the
CME observed on 13 April. .
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 075
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 075/077/078
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 005/005-007/007-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/30
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/30/35
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales