IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1063 (N16E01) is
spotless today. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated active
period at mid-latitude reported at 29/0600Z. Observations from the
ACE spacecraft indicate the activity was due to a co-rotating
interaction region with observed IMF Bz fluctuations of +/- 7 nT and
an increase in Bt of 9 nT. Solar wind speeds have increased the
last 24 hours from around 310 to 400 km/s indicating the presence of
a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (30
April-02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 076
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales