US Military Warns Oil Output May Dip Causing Massive Shortages by
2015
- Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel
By Terry Macalister
The Guardian - UK, April 11, 2010
Straight to the Source
The
US military has warned that surplus
oil production capacity could disappear within two years and
there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant
economic and political impact. The energy crisis outlined in a
Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces
Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record
levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a
barrel.
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely
disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could
reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which
has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.
It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what
economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall
might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth
in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic
slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push
fragile and failing states further down the path toward
collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both
China and
India."
The US military says its views cannot be taken as US
government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint
Forces with "an intellectual foundation upon which we will
construct the concept to guide out future force developments."
The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has
turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a distant
threat to a more immediate risk.
The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer
effectively dismissed fears but Lord Hunt,
the
British energy minister, met concerned industrialists two weeks ago
in a sign that it is rapidly changing its mind on the seriousness of the
issue.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that
there is no short-term risk of oil shortages but privately some senior
officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally
about this upbeat stance.
Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because
it is believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world.
BP chief
executive, Tony Hayward, said recently that there was little chance of
crude from the carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands being banned in America
because the US military like to have local supplies rather than rely on
the politically unstable Middle East.
But there are signs that the US Department of Energy might also be
changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent
interview with French newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam, main oil
adviser to the Obama administration, admitted that "a chance exists that
we may experience a decline" of world liquid fuels production between
2011 and 2015 if the investment was not forthcoming.
Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who
has been researching peak oil theories, said the review by the American
military moves the debate on.
"It's surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of
Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the near-term. Now it
could be interesting to know on which study the information is based
on," he said.
"The Energy Information Administration (of the department of energy)
has been saying for years that Peak Oil was "decades away". In light of
the report from the US Joint Forces Command, is the EIA still confident
of its previous highly optimistic conclusions?"
The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what
can happen on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval. "One
should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of
totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations
by ruthless conquest," it points out.
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