Dangerous Heat and Severe Weather. Solar Flare and Tropical Storm Colin

Excessive heat warnings and advisories are in place across much of lower and mid Mississippi river valleys and into the Tennessee valley. Expect heat indices to range from 110 to 115 degrees. It’s not out of the question to see isolated areas approaching 120°heat index. It will also be hot and humid across the southeast and Mid-Atlantic States today prompting heat advisories to be posted throughout these regions.

There were 244 reports of severe weather yesterday, with the bulk of them in the mid-Atlantic and the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. There were 4 fatalities reported on Wednesday. Two people died when a barn collapsed in Hartford, Ohio with 15 people inside. We have a slight risk for severe thunderstorms in western Kentucky and Tennessee and from the New England region back down into the Mid-Atlantic States.There is a moderate risk for severe storms today in Colorado. SEE SLIDE BELOW

A small solar flare erupted on the Sun on August 1st 2010. A coronal mass ejection (CME) moved towards the earth at 2.5 million miles per hour. It arrived on Earth on Tuesday August 3rd 2010 causing a geomagnetic storm. The forecast calls for the strongest activity today as the Earth is hit with another CME.

The remnant low of Tropical Storm Colin is showing signs of getting better organized however there is no evidence from surface observations of a low level circulation. With that said tropical force winds are likely to occur or are occurring north of the Virgin Islands. This area of low pressure could become Tropical Storm Colin again later today. Air Force reconnaissance is schedule to fly into this area and we will get a better look at what is happening. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this area a 50% of developing into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.

At this time the remnant low of Colin is moving towards the northwest at 20 mph. Computer models take Colin on a classic re-curve path, between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda and then out to the north Atlantic. This area is experiencing very high wind shear at this time; however once it gets out of this hostile environment, conditions will become more favorable for development. Only one computer models predicts Colin will become a hurricane, but there is a consensus of other models that Colin will regain Tropical Storm status. SEE SLIDE BELOW

We are also monitoring Invest 92L located in the Southwest Caribbean Sea. The NHC gives this area a 10% chance of development within the next 2 days. However this system could become a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Central American coast in the next day or two. The rest of the tropics are quiet for the time being.

Colorado State University kept their season forecast numbers the same calling for 18 named storms 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. We will have more on these numbers later this week.

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Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 with about 80% of tropical storms and hurricanes developing during August, September, and October. In a typical year, 11 named storms develop and 6 of these become hurricanes. On average, some portion the District is affected by at least one named storm every other year, a hurricane every 3 years, and a major hurricane every 6-7 years.

Tropical Cyclone Categories:

-Tropical Depression 20 knots/23 mph

-Tropical Storm 34 knots/39 mph

-Category 1 Hurricane 64 knots/74 mph

-Category 2 Hurricane 84 knots/96 mph

-Category 3 Hurricane 97 knots/111 mph

-Category 4 Hurricane 114 knots/131 mph

-Category 5 Hurricane 136 knots/156 mph

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swoliver@cfl.rr.com

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