IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N17W84) produced
several B-class flares and also a C1 flare at 16/1639Z. New region
1100 (S24E59) was numbered today and is classified as a Axx-type
group with an alpha magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled period
was observed at 16/0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on
days one and two (17 - 18 August) in response to the CME observed on
14 August. Mostly quiet levels are expected on day three (19
August).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 085
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 010/015-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01