North America Projected to have Adequate Reserve Margins for Upcoming Winter

WASHINGTON, DC - November 30, 2010 (News Release)

The outlook for Planning Reserve Margins in North America is sufficient to meet winter peak demands, a report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released today says.

The report – 2010/2011 Winter Reliability Assessment – projects that the Anticipated Planning Reserve Margin will increase from 32.5 percent last year to 47 percent this year.
Link to report: http://www.nerc.com/files/2010_Winter_Assessment_Final_Posted.pdf

“Based on the projected data, information and self-assessments provided by each of the Regional Entities, planning reserve margins appear to be adequate and sufficient preparations have been made for the upcoming winter to maintain bulk power system reliability,” said Mark Lauby, director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis. “NERC completes a reliability assessment each year highlighting industry preparations to maintain bulk power system reliability throughout the summer and winter seasons.”

Some key highlights from the assessment include:

• Peak Demand Increase, Reserve Margins Remain Adequate. Peak demand for the 2010/2011 winter season has risen 0.6 percent compared to last year due to a projected slight economic recovery – with Planning Reserve Margins remaining adequate in the United States and Canada. From a regional perspective, NPCC-Quebec and WECC-Northwest Power Pool are projected to be near the NERC Reference Margin Level. However, both subregions appear to have sufficient resources to maintain reliability.

• Long-Term Weather Forecast Predicts an Average 2010/2011 Winter. The 2010/2011 winter temperature and precipitation forecast shows North America is expected to experience an average winter. The February 2011 forecast is expected to be higher than average precipitation and lower than average temperatures.er than average.

• Operational Challenges are Manageable through the 2010/2011 Winter. Overall operational conditions, including variable resource operations, are not expected to affect the bulk power system reliability this winter. All regions have operational strategies and procedures in place to mitigate potential reliability issues that may arise.

Also released today is the 2009/2010 Post-Winter Reliability Assessment summary. While the 2009/2010 winter season presented some unusual operating conditions in the southeastern part of the United States due to colder than normal temperatures, sufficient reserves and operational reliability were sustained.

“Industry proved to be resilient last winter as all-time and near all-time winter peak demands were realized in the United States,” said John Moura, technical analyst for NERC’s Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis. “Operational measures experienced should act to continually enhance the future reliability of the bulk power system.”

The Post-Winter report discusses pre-seasonal preparations and their performance, and significant operational measures, specifically:

• Short-Term Operational Strategies to Manage Extreme Weather Conditions. Because of weather uncertainty associated with a seasonal forecast, short-term operational strategies must be relied on to mitigate potential reliability situations. The ability to update system models to reflect future operating conditions is a key strategy to prepare for unexpected high demand and ensure resources are available to deliver power when needed.

• Monitoring Wind Output. The real-time monitoring of wind resources has become increasingly important to manage the overall resource portfolio. Forecasting the output of variable generation is critical to bulk power system reliability to ensure that adequate resources are available for ancillary services and ramping requirements.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s mission is to ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system. NERC is the electric reliability organization (ERO) certified by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to establish and enforce reliability standards for the bulk-power system. NERC develops and enforces reliability standards; assesses adequacy annually via a 10-year forecast, and summer and winter forecasts; monitors the bulk power system; and educates, trains and certifies industry personnel. Learn more at www.nerc.com.

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