Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity Issued: 2010 Dec 06 2200 UTC Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours. Region 1132 decayed to spotless plage. Regions 1131 (N31E15) and Region 1133 (N16E43) were both quiet, unipolar, alpha type groups. A large filament erupted from the southeast quadrant of the visible solar disk beginning at approximately 1535Z. This eruption was seen in SDO imagery and by ground based observers. The associated CME was observed in the STEREO ahead COR2 imagery beginning at approximately 1909Z. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low. There is a slight chance for C-class x-ray events for the next three days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. A sector boundary change was observed at the ACE spacecraft beginning at approximately 1750Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the first two days of the forecast period (07-08 Dec). A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective near the end of day 3 (9 December) bringing a chance for unsettled geomagnetic conditions. III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Dec 089 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 089/089/087 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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