Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2010 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Regions 1134 (N19W33) and
1135 (N18E56) were numbered during the last 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (14-16 December).  There is a
slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
in response to a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to return to mostly quiet conditions for days one and two
(14-15 December).  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day
three (16 December) as a recurrent coronal high speed stream rotates
into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 088
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  090/088/088
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales