Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2010 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1135 (N19E17)
produced a long duration B7 flare at 16/0427Z.  This region regained
a couple spots today and is classified as a Bxo beta group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1135.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicate a continued decline in solar wind speeds ranging
from 550 km/s down to 450 km/s through the period. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day one (17 December).  Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for days two and three (18-19
December) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 084
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  082/080/080
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  005/005-007/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    00/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales