The
Republican
Senate
By DICK MORRIS
Published on
TheHill.com on December 7, 2010
Republicans gnashed their teeth in frustration as
the national tide of GOP resurgence washed up against the massive
Democratic fortresses in Nevada, Washington state, Colorado and
California. When they neither toppled nor faltered, most conservatives
resigned themselves to a divided Congress with the Republican House and
the Democratic Senate forever at war.
Not so. The vote on the extension of the Bush tax cuts reveals that the
Republican Party has, in fact, gained effective control of the U.S.
Senate. We are facing the same situation Ronald Reagan confronted in
1980 when his revolution brought him control of the Senate, but left the
House under the nominal reign of Tip O'Neill and the Democrats. But, in
fact, as the new president soon discovered, the House Democratic
majority was subservient to the tide that had swept the Senate.
Terrified by the Republican sweep, the Democrats were unable to muster a
coherent opposition in the chamber they controlled. So it will be in
2011.
The Democrats will keep the corner offices in the Russell, Dirksen and
Hart Senate office buildings and retain their committee
chairmanships, but their ability to summon a majority to sustain
their president on crucial votes is gone. The defection of Sens.
Jim Webb (D-Va.), Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and
Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut indicates that the
53-47 Democratic tilt of the Senate is more apparent than real.
Webb, Nelson, Manchin and Lieberman are all up for reelection in
2012. Each is very good at reading the handwriting on the wall
left by Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), Evan Bayh (D-Ind.),
Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.), Arlen Specter
(D-Pa.), Bob
Bennett (R-Utah) and Russ Feingold
(D-Wis.) on
their way out the door. It reads: "The conservatives are
coming!" |
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
(D-Nev.) could well afford to lose four votes while he controlled the
Senate 58-42, but he can ill afford four defections when his margin is
only three. And Sens. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Bob
Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) -- all from red states
and all facing close reelection battles -- cannot be far behind these
four in considering periodic abandonment of the ship on key votes. Only
the likelihood of retirement saves Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) from a
similar fate. Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Herb Kohl (D-Wis.), Jeff
Bingaman (D-N.M.), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Robert Menendez
(D-N.J.), also vulnerable in 2012, probably think they can ride out the
tide in their more Democratic states. (And in any event, Brown, Stabenow
and Menendez are too liberal to notice what has just happened.)
So, on key votes, the endangered Democratic senators are likely to dodge
the bullets coming from the House and defect from Reid's majority. Why
should they take the rap for blocking conservative legislation when they
have a presidential veto backing them up at the other end of
Pennsylvania Avenue? "Let the president take the rap; why should I have
to?" they will ask as they lend their assent to House-passed bills. The
inability of President Obama to reelect those who supported him hardly
encourages others to risk their careers doing so.
Indeed, Reid can only regain his functioning majority if more Democrats
choose to retire rather than face the music in 2012. If Kohl, Bingaman,
Webb and Ben Nelson decide to retire after this term, the Democrats
could have enough lame ducks to keep control of the Senate floor for one
more cycle -- hardly a pleasing prospect for their party.
The result of the functional Republican control of the Senate is that
the forum for decision making in a divided Washington will not be the
conference committee, but rather White House negotiations between the
two political parties.
It remains to be seen whether the
endangered Democrats can save their Senate seats from the likely GOP
tide of 2012 by switching in time to pretend to be moderates. What is
clear is that they are not going to block the Republican bills coming
over from the House.
The Democrats will still control the committees in the Senate, but the
Republicans will own the floor.
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***COPYRIGHT EILEEN
MCGANN AND DICK MORRIS 2010. ***
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