US oil stocks likely to decline 3 million barrels: analysts

New York (Platts)--13Dec2010/556 pm EST/2256 GMT

Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute should show a draw of about 3 million barrels in US commercial crude stocks for the reporting week ended December 10, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.

API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. EDT(1530 GMT) Wednesday.

Last week's 607,000 b/d jump in crude imports to 9.053 million b/d that was concentrated on the largely disconnected West Coast is not apt to repeat, analysts said. Crude imports on the West and Atlantic coasts tend to be erratic and one cargo can dramatically swing weekly data given limited refining capacity in each region.

Analysts said they expect crude runs to drop 1 percentage point to 86.5%, based on EIA's data, after the previous week's 789,000 b/d climb in inputs to refineries. Even if crude runs were to decline 1%, inputs at about 14.754 million b/d amid declining imports would cause stocks to draw.

Gasoline stocks are expected to build 2 million barrels, with high refiner output trumping a potential pick-up in demand. Historically, product tends to move through the distribution system to meet increased holiday needs.

Inventories of middle distillates are expected to fall 1.5 million barrels as colder temperatures along the key-consuming Atlantic Coast cause an increase in demand for heating oil.

--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com

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