London (Platts)--16Feb2010/822 am EST/1322 GMT

The EU is on track to meet or slightly exceed its target of generating 20% of primary energy production from renewables by 2020 according to an assessment of national forecast documents, the European Wind Energy Association said Tuesday.

The EWEA analysis of all 27 member states' national forecasts shows 13 member states meeting the renewable energy targets set by the European Commission, with a further eight expecting to exceed the target.

"Only six forecast they will not manage to reach their target through domestic action alone, although [Bulgaria and Denmark] say that with fresh national initiatives they can meet or exceed their targets," EWEA said.

None of the six expect to be more than one percentage point below requirements, the association added.

The analysis lists the highest achievers as Spain, which believes renewables will reach 22.7% of the country's energy mix by 2020, and Germany, which expects to be 0.7% above its 18% target. Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Poland, Slovakia and Sweden are also in the top eight.

The six countries that do not currently expect to meet their targets are Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Bulgaria and Denmark.

EWEA put Italy at the bottom of the league. To meet its national target, the Italian forecast document envisages importing renewable energy from neighboring non-EU countries such as Albania, Croatia, Serbia and Tunisia.

"Europe has witnessed a sea-change since the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive was agreed as in 2008 many countries were stating that their target would be difficult to meet. Now the majority are forecasting that they will meet or exceed their national target," said Justin Wilkes, EWEA policy director.

"The forecast documents give a clear signal to the European Commission of where they could facilitate implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive," Wilkes added.

--Anna Crowley, anna_crowley@platts.com