IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1045 (N22W52) is
beginning to show signs of decay. Region 1046 (N23E15) intensified
during the period, producing a C1.1/sf flare at 11/1941Z, the
largest event of the period. A well defined, recurrent, southern
extension coronal hole is nearing 20E.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
However, there is a chance for an isolated M-class event during the
period (12-14 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions observed between 06-09Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (12 February). A decrease to quiet
with a slight chance for unsettled conditions on days 2 and 3 (13-14
February) is expected.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 094
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 094/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/35/35
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales