IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N21E50) produced a
low-level C-class flare early in the period. Region 1046 (N24W36)
continued to gradually decay. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 1048.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated an interplanetary shock passage at
approximately 15/1725Z. This was followed by a weak geomagnetic
sudden impulse at 15/1832Z (02 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The
shock was likely associated with the M8/CME event of 12 February.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (16 -
17 February) with a chance for active levels. Activity is expected
to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (18 February).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 088
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 086/084/084
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/010-010/010-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales