IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
Regions 1050 (S19W40) and 1051 (N16E54) were quiet and stable
Bxo/Beta groups. SOHO/LASCO images showed a faint, slow CME from the
southeast quadrant late yesterday (estimated plane of sky velocity
348 km/sec). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during most of the period. However, there will be a chance for
C-class flares beginning on day 3 (28 February) due to the expected
return of old Region 1045 (N19, L=251).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (26 - 27
February). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (28 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. The CME mentioned above is not expected to
disturb the field during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 083
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 082/080/082
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 005/005-005/006-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales