By Kathy Larsen on December 24, 2009 12:11 PM

Natural gas prices spent the year in a rut, with no hurricanes to halt supplies that started spilling out of storage. Hard to be surprised. But James Crandall and his team of analysts at Barclays said 2009 offered more than a couple of surprises. (Thanks to my colleague Bill Holland for this.)

Among them:

* Shale. "The gift that keeps on giving," Barclays said. "How much of this iceberg is below the water?" As drilling costs keep dropping, only restraint by gas producers seems to be the limiting factor.
* US storage a bigger than expected 3.8 Tcf. Storage hit 292 Bcf more than the previous 3.837 Tcf record, and nobody blinked. "US storage is both larger and more flexible than anticipated," Barclays said. Next year: 4 Tcf and a reset of what "bearish" means.
* Rig count doesn't mean what it used to. Producers sent rigs to the shed in droves and supply didn't fall as much. "Gains from high-grading drilling are almost completely offsetting the cut in drilling," Barclays said.
* LNG doesn't arrive (again). "The market was convinced a flood was in the making," Barclays said, and then LNG producers delayed some start dates and did maintenance. No flood. Barely a trickle. "LNG deliveries to the US were tepid," Barclays said, but they are not giving up the faith: "For 2010, however, we believe the LNG risk is real."
* Weather. Or, more accurately, no weather. Summer was a bust with no hurricanes. "Hurricane forecasters were placed on earth to make gas price forecasters look good." Only saving grace: December cold snap.