Immigration Decision Will Erode Obama
Support
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published on
DickMorris.com on July 28, 2010
When Judge Susan Bolton granted an injunction halting the
enforcement of key provisions of the Arizona immigration enforcement
law, she ruled in favor of the Justice Department's position, but
against the president's political interest.
Had the judge sustained this law, it would have made moot Obama's
opposition to the Arizona law. As it is, she has transformed the
law into a big campaign issue against Obama. Now the president is
standing in the way of a state that wants to enforce the law that he
won't.
The Arizona law is massively popular in the United States. Over 60
percent of all American voters support it. But the president has
sought and has succeeded in stopping it from taking effect. Now
this majority -- close to two-thirds of the electorate -- that backs
the law will be able to focus their blame for its non-enforcement
squarely on the president of the United States.
In the long term, the Bolton decision will likely be overturned by
the U.S. Supreme Court and Arizona will find itself vindicated.
But, in the meantime, the decision endangers the re-election chances
of three Democratic Congressmen from Arizona. Their constituents
will not be satisfied with statements from these Democrats
supporting the Arizona law. They will become embittered because
Obama's Justice Department has overridden their will.
Why did Obama bring the suit in the first place if it hurts him?
Because he was seeking to increase the turnout of Latino voters and
trying to win them by the same huge margin (2:1) that they delivered
to him in 2008. Since he took office, Obama's approval among
Hispanics has dropped to 54%, foreshadowing a massive abandonment of
his Congressional candidates in November.
But what Obama miscalculated was the intense support from among most
voters that the Arizona law has elicited. As he bid for Latino
votes, he has sacrificed much of his liberal, Democratic base.
This decision hurts him badly.
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***COPYRIGHT EILEEN MCGANN AND DICK MORRIS 2010.