IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1087 (N17W61)
produced a long duration B5 flare at 19/0752Z. This region shows a
continued sign of decay. New Region 1089 (S23E70) was numbered
today and emerged on the disk as a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for days one and two (20-21
July). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (22
July) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream will be in a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 080
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales