One obvious lesson of the spill is that the spectacular sophisticated technologies that allow drilling at depths once thought impossible offshore have so far outstripped industry's powers to remedy any in-place system malfunction. If it isn't easy to drill a deepwater well, it's even more difficult to halt a runaway crude flow from one. That is why we saw BP cautioning before every new Macondo containment effort: "It's never been tried at these depths before."
Inadequate preparation for a crisis like Macondo snuck up behind industry's back. In the last dozen years, drilling pushed out to extreme water depths relatively quickly, and during that time it has been the victim of its own excellent safety record. So much so that apparently no one thought of possibly being left dangling on a ledge in case of a well disaster. There hasn't been a major offshore blowout for many years, and in the meantime oil companies kept creeping out into ever-deeper waters. All the while, it seems not to have crossed anyone's mind that solutions to blowouts that had worked in 500 feet of water might not produce the same outcome at 5,000 feet -- where Macondo is sited.
Offshore drilling was launched in 1938 in about 14 feet of water along the Louisiana coast. But industry, never content with staying in one place for long, soon waded out deeper. It took awhile, though: more than 40 years later, in the early 1980s, Shell broke the 1,000 foot water depth with its Cognac development in 1,025 feet.
It took Shell 30 more years to produce a discovery in 8,000 feet of water -- the Great White find along the southern edge of the Gulf. Shell's Perdido Hub, which started producing the field in March, will also produce Tobago and Silvertip -- two other discoveries in water depths well over 9,000 feet.
And even that isn't the limit of where the oil industry has dared to tread. In 2004, Chevron's Toledo well came up dry, but still holds title to the well drilled in the deepest US Gulf waters of 10,011 feet.
These are huge accomplishments. But if industry is having problems halting the flow of crude at what has now become the fairly routine water depth of 5,000 feet, think of the difficulties if a Macondo-like blowout had occurred at today's outer limits of 8,000 or 9,000 feet. Every solution would take longer and cost more, due to the extreme depths. And ironically, more oil might gush out because deep wells often contain more hydrocarbons, which is the lure of industry's enchantment with deeper waters.
Several methods of containing Macondo have been tried and found wanting: a 100-ton containment dome, a mud-pumping "top kill," and a garbage filler called "junk shot." Now a cut-and-cap technique called a Lower Marine Riser Package is being readied for trial. Even if the LMRP reduces or shuts down Macondo's flow, its efficacy would still be unknown at 10,000 feet, where the industry was clearly heading prior to the April 20 well blowout.
One can only hope stricter regulations will prevent future Macondo-scale disasters. But the unimaginable has a way of surfacing every now and then. Thankfully it is extremely rare. We may assume safety and prevention will be raised to airtight levels in the near future and industry will resume its push into ever-deeper waters. Even so, if the unthinkable were to happen at 10,000 feet, would we even begin to know how to prepare for it?
