By Gary Taylor on June 17, 2010 1:28 PM

US oil executives can work to distance themselves from BP's Macondo disaster all they want, but they will still be joined at the hip when all the debate boils down to answering THE ultimate question that now faces offshore drilling.

That question: What can you do to stop a runaway well in 5,000 feet of water if the blowout preventer has failed?

As long as the best answer involves tactics like junk shots, top kills, top hats, Jello shots, sombreros, Real Kill or even asking the public to send crackpot suggestions, Big Oil may have trouble winning new permission for deepwater drilling. After all, BP enlisted its brethren in this desperate odyssey to answer that question when it occurred at Macondo and no one offered anything better. So blaming BP's well design or the failure of the BOP will ring hollow in the future.

Thanks to Macondo, that one-time hypothetical question can no longer be quickly dismissed with a flip of the hand as some preposterous rambling from a wild-eyed environmentalist. That question now defines the industry's worst-case scenario brought to terrifying life with Macondo. And it is THE question facing the entire industry in a post-Macondo world: What can any of you do if your BOP fails, and the well runs wild in 5,000 feet of water?

I'm reminded of a scene from an old prison movie where the warden discovers a shank in the courtyard. Everybody goes to solitary confinement until somebody snitches. But who is going to snitch? They're all inmates here, aren't they?

And, in the Gulf of Mexico they are all in the doghouse with the government checking for fleas. But, here again, they're all dogs, too, and the fleas clearly exist. Everybody has to take a bath, or start using flea powder.

So, kicking this question around among other observers has led to only one conclusion for future deepwater drilling: two wells on each project, one for exploration and the second for relief if needed. That rule will double the cost on dry holes. But it also will give the operator a faster start on development if the well bears fruit. And it will also defend against the kind of potentially destructive costs from an environmental disaster like the one that threatens a super major like BP.

Does anyone else have a better answer? I'd like to hear it.