June 18, 2010
Ken Silverstein
EnergyBiz Insider
Editor-in-Chief
BP's oil spill cuts two ways in terms of nuclear energy. On the one hand, it would tend to bode well for the growth of the non-fossil-fired energy. On the hand, it begs for a greater dialogue about nuclear safety.
With images playing out every day on TV of thick, dark oil splattered all over the Gulf of Mexico, the nation is now looking inward and asking from which energy sources it should depend. The most consistent drum beat is coming from those who advocate sustainable fuels, but those who have long pushed for relatively pollution-free nuclear energy are not far behind. Before it can assume a leadership role in this debate, the industry must reassure a skeptical public.
To that end, the Government Accountability Office has issued its findings on the Convention on Nuclear Safety, which is a consortium of 64 nations that operate civilian nuclear programs. They meet every three years in Vienna, Austria under the umbrella of the International Atomic Energy Agency -- a process that the congressional watchdog agency says has "strengthened" nuclear safety.
"The convention has taken on increased significance in recent years as countries are either expanding their existing nuclear power capacity or planning to establish new programs," says Gene Aloise, director of natural resources and the environment for GAO.
The world's nuclear capacity is expected to exponentially rise. China, which has 23 nuclear reactors now under construction, plans to spend $50 billion to build a total of 32 reactors by 2020. At the same time, India and Pakistan are moving forward as is Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, which has a $20 billion contract with some South Korean vendors to build four 1,400 megawatt nuclear plants by 2012.
Members of the convention are still bothered by the fact that Iran refuses to ratify the agreement. Russia, which is helping Iran to build a nuclear reactor, may stop that assistance unless Iran signs on.
Meantime, the GAO is uneasy about the peer review process used to help signatories access the best available technologies and safety processes -- a practice that lacks a set of performance metrics by which to judge their progress. And while those meetings are held in confidence to assure open communications, pressures exist to publicize the conclusions. In the case of this country, it posts such findings on government web sites.
The convention plays "a useful role in strengthening the safety of civilian nuclear power reactors worldwide," says Aloise. "Efforts to improve parties' nuclear regulatory capabilities and the obligation to prepare a national report every three years are among the most useful contributions the convention has made to increased nuclear safety."
Safety Records
At present, 438 civilian nuclear power reactors are operating in 33 countries, says the GAO. They supply about 14 percent of the world's electricity. Another 58 are under construction. More such plants will be needed as the global population expands and energy demand escalates. In the United States, 22 applications are pending to build reactors -- on top of the 104 reactors that are currently operating.
Of course, the building process suffered after the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 and the Chernobyl disaster in the Ukraine in 1986. That is when an explosion destroyed the core of a reactor that contained 200 tons of nuclear fuel, releasing radioactive material six miles high and over 60,000 square miles of territory that stretched into Russia and even northern Europe.
In the mid 1990s, the Convention on Nuclear Safety was formed -- a treaty that focuses on general safety principles as opposed specific technical standards. While the six major participants are the United States, France, Russia, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, it is targeted to the nations of Eastern Europe that are using, in some cases, outdated equipment. About 20 countries have contributed billions in an effort to modernize those plants.
As for Russia, it now has 32 nuclear reactors. They supply 16 percent of the nation's power, although the country has said it seeks to double the number of reactors by 2020 -- something that would provide about a quarter of the country's electricity at that point. The efficiency of its modern nuclear plants has propelled the agenda, with capacity factors rising from about 56 percent in the 1990s to about 80 percent today.
As such, the European Union has forced some of its newer members from the old Soviet Bloc that include Bulgaria and Slovakia to cease using older plants. Meantime, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are all gearing up to develop their nuclear programs. Under the convention rules, each country must identify the measures that they have taken to ensure safety in the areas of permitting, design, construction and operation.
According to the GAO, nearly all parties responding to its request for information say that the convention has been "very useful" or "somewhat useful" in helping to strengthen nuclear safety both in their country and worldwide. In all, these parties operate 404 -- or more than 92 percent -- of the world's 438 operating civilian nuclear power reactors.
The time is ripe for the nuclear industry to make its case. The BP oil spill is its immediate entree while the expected increase in electricity demand is just as compelling. But the discussion will invariably turn to past nuclear accidents and to the steps that have been taken to ensure they do not happen again.
The nuclear industry has unquestionably made inroads and improved its safety and efficiency records. Nonetheless, questions persist in the aftermath of the current environmental disaster. Candid and non-defensive responses are critical if the nuclear sector is to overcome fears and to ease the path to more construction.
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