IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1076 (S19W36) has grown in size and is magnetically
classified as a beta group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the
next three days (04-06 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels at mid
latitudes with isolated storm periods from 0900Z-1500Z at high
latitudes. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a
continuation of a high speed solar wind stream, with an increase in
solar wind speed from 450 km/s to 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
isolated active periods for the next two days (04-05 June).
Activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream on day
one and the arrival of a CME observed on 31 May on day two.
Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on day three (06 June).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 075
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 075/074/074
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

Continuation of Serial Number: 1678
Begin Time: 2010 May 30 1015 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 18234 pfu

 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales