IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were
observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event over the next 3 days
(8-10 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet over the past 24 hours with
the exception of an isolated period of unsettled conditions between
06/21Z and 07/00Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated period of minor
storming possible on day 1 (8 June). This activity is due to the
high speed stream from a coronal hole as well as a possible CME
arrival from a disappearing filament on 3 June. On day 2 (9 June)
the chance for active conditions early in the period exists.
Otherwise, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
Conditions are forecasted to return to quiet on day 3 (10 June).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 068
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/50/25
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/50/25
Minor storm 30/30/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
 

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1682
Begin Time: 2010 May 30 1015 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6614 pfu
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales