IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 1082 (N28E33)
produced a B5/Sf x-ray event at 17/1023Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 3 days (18-20 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a few isolated
periods of active conditions at mid latitudes. Solar wind speeds
remain near 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for an isolated
period of active conditions on day 1 (18 June). Conditions are
forecast to be mostly quiet on days 2 and 3 (19-20 June).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 070
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/30
Minor storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/30/30
Minor storm 30/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
 

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1689
Begin Time: 2010 Jun 17 1440 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1362 pfu

 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales