Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2010 Jun 21 2230 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No flares occurred
during the past 24 hours. Region 1082 (N27W10) is growing slowly
but was quiet and stable. (Today's 10.7 cm flux was estimated using
RSTN data).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 070
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1693
Begin Time: 2010 Jun 17 1440 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1095 pfu

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales